Evaluation and Projection of Global Marine Heatwaves Based on CMIP6 Models
摘要
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme climatic events that last for days to months and can extend up to thousands of kilometers and cause substantial ecological, social, and economic impacts. Climate models are the key tool for studying and predicting MHWs. However, it continues to be challenging for climate models to accurately simulate MHWs. In this study, we evaluate 29 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and 19 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in terms of their capabilities to simulate MHWs by examining the spatial patterns and temporal variations. Then, we estimate future changes until the end of the 21st century under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) (e.g., SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The results show that the CMIP6 ensemble mean is more skillful in capturing the features of MHWs than that of the CMIP5. The biases of the CMIP6 models for the MHWs intensities are within ±0.5◦C over most of the oceans, except in the western boundary current regions and eastern tropical Pacific, where the modeled MHWs are up to 1.5◦CMIP5 are greater than ±1.5◦C weaker than the observations. In comparison, the results from C in most areas. Both the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models underestimate long-duration MHWs in the eastern tropical Pacific, where they are nearly 20 days shorter than the observations. In most areas, the CMIP5 models overestimate the MHWs durations (by over 25 days), while the biases of the CMIP6 models are within 10 days. The projected MHWs exhibit significant increases in the intensity and duration and reach maximum intensities of 4◦C. The largest changes are projected to occur in the tropics, North Pacific, and North Atlantic. When comparing the shared socioeconomic pathways for the increasing trend of MHWs, the most extreme MHWs occur under SSP585, with their intensities nearly doubling and a near-permanent MHWs state occurring by the 2070s.
类型
出版物
Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography
Authors
Authors
Authors
Authors
Authors
研究员
博导，物理海洋学博士，研究员，目前担任学术期刊Ocean Modelling执行编辑、Scientific Data编委、中国海洋学会海气相互作用专业委员会秘书长、CLIVAR 海洋模式发展组OMDP委员等。一直从事地球系统模式发展与应用等方面的研究，率先将海浪的非破碎垂向混合作用和对海气通量作用引入到气候模式中，揭示了小尺度海浪过程在大尺度气候系统中的重要作用及机制；开展了海洋数值模式基于国产处理器的高效并行算法、地球系统模式的负载均衡算法以及AI4ClimateModeling等研究，有效提升了模式计算效率；发展了两代耦合海浪的地球系统模式FIO-ESM，通过完善模式所包含的小尺度过程，有效减缓模拟偏差，提高模拟和预测能力；构建了短期气候预测系统FIO-CPS，在国家海洋环境预报中心、国家气候中心等多个国家级和地方业务中心应用。先后主持NSFC青年、面上、重点、优青、杰青以及重点研发计划项目等多个项目；先后入选自然资源部第一海洋研究所“束星北”青年学者、自然资源部高层次科技创新人才领军人才和第二人才梯队等。